By Anna Williams and Susannah Fisher, PhD
If we have learned anything from this year, it is that we can’t avoid facing the climate crisis. We have surpassed 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, 2020 shows signs of being the warmest year on record, devastating forest fires and hurricanes are occurring in record numbers, and COVID-19 is exacerbating food insecurity for people already facing climate-related vulnerability. Between climate change and other human activities, up to a million species are at risk of extinction in the next few decades, with massive repercussions for human livelihoods.
Based on our research and experience working with climate funders on transformational change, we see a case for higher levels of ambition and bolder choices proportional to the scale, depth, and urgency of the challenge. The crisis is unfolding in front of our eyes despite real transformational advancements in important areas, such as solar and wind energy markets. We observe that most of the current approaches, including climate change policies, programs, and projects, are largely modest and incremental, assuming that, over time, these will lead to a transformational ‘tipping point’.
There is a lot of experience around the world to draw from, and we can collaborate to develop options and make the case for transformational change. We can draw from the profound and painful lessons that COVID-19 has forced upon us, including learning and adapting in the thick of it and making tough and bold decisions at all levels of society. The time is now.
What will it take to learn from experience and make the change we need?
To achieve the change we need, policies and investments need to take new strategies and approaches, with a willingness for experimentation and iteratively advancing over time, often in discontinuous and non-linear ways. This could occur, for instance, when different actors deploy first-mover, utility-scale energy storage technologies, knowing it may take several iterations to realize context-appropriate, viable, affordable, and deployable options. In the context of resilience, this could mean making the tough choice to relocate climate-vulnerable communities living in low-lying areas when reinforcing infrastructure or other more incremental approaches will not suffice.
Hard choices often come with higher risks including political, financial, and reputational risks. Even considering the best available information, there is usually some uncertainty and a lack of predictability. Like with responding to COVID-19, we must make choices based on where we are at, as unsettling as that is. Costs are often high, with few guarantees of success or particular returns on investments. Enabling and empowering bold choices requires not being held back by fear and risk, making tough course corrections when it is warranted.
Bold choices must be grounded in sound analysis, drawing upon best-in-class information, considering options, and weighing the anticipated benefits, risks, trade-offs, and opportunity costs, including the costs of inaction. It will also be important to be diligent in avoiding unintended consequences, such as new approaches to adaptation making vulnerability worse or introducing vulnerability elsewhere by surpassing ecosystem limits.
We are already making profound choices by not changing course, maintaining the status quo, and defaulting to delay and the avoidance of the hard truths. Indeed, the risks of not making the tough choices are grave, passing the buck to those next in line when the stakes and costs will be higher, and much will be lost in the interim.
How do we support taking the bold choices we need?
We don’t have the answers; nobody does. But building on the experience of global leaders in this space, including CIF and other climate finance institutions we have worked with, we are asking these tough questions. We do not see a clear evidence base upon which to fully analyse these questions, including the extent to which incremental approaches truly lead to transformation or instead slow, hinder, or prevent transformation. Is one pathway supporting the other, distracting from the other, or providing a separate pathway? How can the barriers to such changes be addressed and perceived risks be managed?
Ultimately the question we must ask is: what will it take to make the case for, and truly enable, the bold choices we need to tackle climate change? When are bold choices not needed, justified, or feasible? What do we still need to have a clearer understanding of the stakes and options and to support a new approach to commitments and actions where the case is clear? We know the enormity of the challenge and the profound risks and costs of not taking it on.
Join us on 3 December to discuss these questions, help advance this thinking, and support the case for the kinds of decisions we ultimately need.